Your trek forecast
Conditions on the route, over the high point & ahead
Hazards & advisories
Measured on the ground
High point, hour by hour
Temperature is lapse-rate corrected to the true altitude. "Feels" is wind chill using the free-air wind at that height, not the sheltered-valley 10 m wind.
Snow & pass status
Landslide & rain risk
Getting there
Best days to trek
Each day is scored on its own windows: pass/high point 04:00–11:00, trail 07:00–17:00, views 06:00–10:00. Reported closures cap the next 3 days; later days show the weather outlook.
Do the models agree?
Conditions for your trek
Uses the typical itinerary (13–16 days incl. acclimatisation). Stages beyond the 7-day forecast show as "not yet forecast" — check back as your date approaches.
Route & freezing level
Where the risk is
Acclimatisation check
DHM forecast
Latest news & closures
Social & official channels
X, Facebook and Instagram offer no public feed we can read reliably, so these are linked rather than scraped. Treat group posts as unverified until confirmed by DHM, the district office or the news sources above.
Manaslu Circuit
Restricted-area circuit up the steep Budhi Gandaki gorge to Samagaun and Samdo, over the 5,106m Larkya La and down to Bimthang and Dharapani. The lower gorge is one of Nepal's most landslide- and flood-prone trekking corridors.
Help on the trail
Permits
Since April 2023 most regions require foreign trekkers to use a licensed guide. Rules change — confirm with the Nepal Tourism Board before you travel.
How the score works
A trek is a route, not a point. We pull an hourly MET Norway forecast for every waypoint (11 on this trek), corrected to its real altitude, plus 5 days of past rain and snow.
High point — wind at pass height (free-air pressure-level wind), wind chill, snowfall, whiteout and thunderstorms during the real pre-dawn crossing window.
Snow & pass — fresh-snow load, new snow depth and time since snowfall give a pass status and an estimate of when locals can reopen the trail; an indicative 1–5 avalanche hazard adds wind loading and warming.
Landslide — rolling 3–96 h rainfall at each gorge segment against the published Nepal Himalaya rainfall threshold (Dahal & Hasegawa, 2008), scaled for slope susceptibility, monsoon saturation and DHM heavy-rain warnings; the hazard fades once rain stops.
Trail weather, views and access — daytime rain and storms on the whole route, dawn cloud at the viewpoints, and Lukla flight odds or approach-road risk.
Reports — Nepali and international news is classified by relevance, severity and source trust. A credible closure caps the score; a later reopening clears it.
Not an official forecast. Nepal has no public avalanche bulletin: avalanche and landslide levels here are model-derived indications. Always follow DHM warnings, district authorities, park staff and your guide. Conditions in the Himalaya change within hours.
Weather forecast from MET Norway (CC BY 4.0) · high-point extras & model comparison: Open-Meteo · Nepal DHM · BIPAD Portal · Nepali & international news. All Nepal treks · CoastMetric UK