Your trek forecast
Conditions on the route, on the high crossings & ahead
Hazards & advisories
Hour by hour
Temperature is lapse-rate corrected to the true altitude. On Alpine cols, wind is the free-air wind at that height (interpolated between the 850, 700 and 600 hPa levels, which sit at about 1,585, 3,185 and 4,420 m over the Alps), not the sheltered 10 m model wind. "Feels" is wind chill.
Snow & avalanche on the cols
Rain, rockfall & landslides
Getting there
Best days on the route
Each day is scored on its own windows: the high crossing 08:00–16:00, trail 08:00–17:00, morning views 06:00–10:00. Reported closures cap the next 3 days; later days show the weather outlook.
Do the models agree?
Conditions for your trek
Uses the typical itinerary (3 (of 10–11) days). Stages beyond the 7-day forecast show as "not yet forecast" — check back as your date approaches.
Route & freezing level
Where the risk is
Where you sleep
Warnings, alert levels & avalanche danger
Ground truth
Latest news & closures
Social & official channels
X, Facebook and Instagram offer no public feed we can read reliably, so these are linked rather than scraped. Treat community posts as unverified until confirmed by the official sources, the huts or the news sources above.
Tour du Mont Blanc — Italian stages
The Italian third of the Tour du Mont Blanc: over Col de la Seigne from France to Rifugio Elisabetta, along Val Veny and the Mont-Favre ridge down to Courmayeur, then the balcony path under the Grandes Jorasses to Rifugio Bonatti and Elena, leaving Italy at the Grand Col Ferret into Switzerland. Only the Italian stages are scored — check French and Swiss conditions for the rest of the loop.
Help on the route
Permits & bookings
Rules, opening dates and access restrictions change — confirm with the huts, the park authority and the local tourist office before you travel.
How the score works
A trek is a route, not a point. We read an hourly forecast for every waypoint (10 on this route) from MET Norway, corrected to its real altitude, and keep the last forecast held for each past hour so recent rain counts. At each route's high point, gusts, storm energy (CAPE), the 0 °C level and free-air wind come from Open-Meteo when available; without them, gusts are estimated from MET wind and the score is capped at 90. ICON-2I (ARPAE), ECMWF, GFS and ICON are compared to rate confidence.
High crossing — wind on the cols and ridges (free-air pressure-level wind above 1,500 m), thunderstorms, snowfall, cloud and wind chill during the crossing window.
Snow & avalanche — fresh-snow load, new snow depth and time since snowfall on the cols. Avalanche danger is the official level from the regional avalanche service (EAWS); outside the bulletin season we show "no bulletin" and never estimate it from a model.
Rain & slopes — rolling 3–96 h rainfall against the Italian landslide rainfall threshold for this region (Peruccacci et al. 2017), scaled for slope susceptibility and the Civil Protection alert level; the index fades once rain stops.
Trail weather, views and access — daytime rain, storms and heat on the whole route (heat scored on the US National Weather Service heat-index categories), morning clarity, and the road or rail approach including official transport strikes.
Reports — Italian national and regional news is classified by relevance, severity and source trust. A credible closure caps the score; a later reopening clears it. Mountain-rescue stories about a single party are shown but do not count as a path closure.
Not an official forecast. Rain and slope levels are model-derived indications (only the Braies end of Alta Via 1 has an open real-time rain gauge). Always follow official warnings, the huts, the park authorities and 112.
Weather forecast from MET Norway (CC BY 4.0) · Data: Open-Meteo extras at the high points (gusts, CAPE, ICON-2I · ECMWF · GFS · ICON), Aeronautica Militare via Meteoalarm, Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, EAWS avalanche services, Provincia di Bolzano, Italian news. All Italy routes · CoastMetric UK