Your summit forecast
Conditions on the route, on summit night & ahead
Hazards & advisories
Summit, hour by hour
Temperature is lapse-rate corrected to the true altitude. "Feels" is wind chill using the free-air wind at summit height (500 hPa sits at about 5,895 m over Kibo), not the sheltered 10 m model wind.
Snow & ice on the summit route
Rain, mud & slopes
Getting there
Best summit nights
Each day is scored on its own windows: summit night 00:00–10:00 (the push that starts at midnight that day), trail 07:00–17:00, dawn views 06:00–09:00. Reported closures cap the next 3 days; later days show the weather outlook.
Do the models agree?
Conditions for your climb
Uses the typical itinerary (6–7 days incl. acclimatisation). Stages beyond the 7-day forecast show as "not yet forecast" — check back as your date approaches.
Route & freezing level
Where the risk is
Acclimatisation check
TMA severe-weather alerts
Latest news & closures
Social & official channels
X, Facebook and Instagram offer no public feed we can read reliably, so these are linked rather than scraped. Treat community posts as unverified until confirmed by TMA, TANAPA or the news sources above.
Kilimanjaro — Machame Route
The 'Whiskey' route: rainforest from Machame Gate, the Shira plateau, Lava Tower and the Barranco Wall, then Barafu Camp and a midnight start for Stella Point and Uhuru Peak (5,895 m), descending by Mweka. Weather risk is summit-night wind and cold on the crater rim, snow and ice above 5,000 m, and rain and mud in the forest zone during the rains.
Help on the mountain
Permits
Fees and park rules change — confirm current requirements with TANAPA and your licensed operator before you travel.
How the score works
A climb is a route, not a point. We pull an hourly forecast for every waypoint (11 on this route), corrected to its real altitude, plus 5 days of past rain and snow. The forecast comes from MET Norway; rain and low cloud come from the UK Met Office 10 km model, because it matched the ERA5 reanalysis on Kilimanjaro while MET Norway and ECMWF (on which MET is based here) heavily over-forecast dry-season rain. Summit wind uses the free-air wind at summit height; if that is unavailable it is estimated from MET's wind and the score is capped.
Summit night — wind at summit height (free-air pressure-level wind), wind chill, snowfall, whiteout and thunderstorms during the real push from the high camp (00:00–10:00).
Snow & ice — fresh-snow load, new snow depth and time since snowfall on the crater rim and summit, with an estimate of when guides can break the trail again.
Rain & slopes — rolling 3–96 h rainfall on the forest and ravine sections against the global landslide rainfall threshold (Caine, 1980), scaled for slope susceptibility, rainy-season wetness and official TMA heavy-rain alerts; the index fades once rain stops.
Trail weather, views and access — daytime rain and storms on the whole route, dawn cloud above 3,000 m, and rain on the road to the gate.
Reports — Tanzanian and international news is classified by relevance, severity and source trust, including fires on the mountain. A credible closure caps the score; a later reopening (or a fire reported contained) clears it.
Not an official forecast. There are no public rain or river gauges on Kilimanjaro or Meru, so rain and slope levels are model-derived indications. Always follow TMA warnings, KINAPA/TANAPA rangers and your guide.
Weather forecast from MET Norway (CC BY 4.0); rain, summit wind and model comparison: Open-Meteo (UK Met Office · ECMWF · GFS · ICON); Tanzania Meteorological Authority, Tanzanian & international news. All Tanzania routes · CoastMetric UK